Sensitivity Analysis of Tucson MODFLOW Models
Dominic T. Self
Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences
The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
This presentation examines the sensitivity of the Tucson Active Management Area (AMA) hydrological model, which utilizes MODFLOW, to better understand how changes in input parameters affect model outputs and calibration quality. Calibration is primarily assessed using the mean absolute error (MAE) of head levels in local wells. Current progress includes downloading and running the model, reviewing its documentation, and using FloPy to extract simulated fluxes from each source at every timestep. The study aims to evaluate the model's reliability, uncover the assumptions embedded in the current understanding of the Tucson basin, and identify the most effective intervention points for replenishing the region's reservoir. Future work will focus on detailed sensitivity analyses to pinpoint key parameters driving model performance.