2024 Hurricane Forecast UPDATE from Xubin Zeng and Kyle Davis
Image: NOAA.gov
Wiki Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season
Dr. Xubin Zeng and Kyle Davis have updated their 2024 Hurricane Forecast from the early spring assessment!
Their updates are as follows:
2024 June Prediction | Probability Range | 2024 April Prediction | Median Since 1980 | |
| Hurricanes | 10 | 8 to 12 (63%) | 11 | 7 |
| Major Hurricanes | 5 | 4 to 6 (70%) | 5 | 2 |
| Named Storms | 23 | 20 to 26 (74%) | 21 | 14 |
| ACE | 231 | 191 to 271 (70%) | 156 | 107 |
They still forecast a much above average year. Their June total predicted tropical activity is higher in ACE and named storms, the same in major hurricanes, and a little lower in hurricanes when compared to their April prediction.
March/April/May tropical sea surface temperatures are the most significant factor in the June model. Temperatures are running extremely warm, in fact, the warmest in their data set.
They made adjustments to their model to better account for ENSO. They now use European Model data to forecast Niño 3.4 conditions during peak hurricane season but only include this variable in the dataset when the anomaly is sufficiently high. For 2024, they do not anticipate ENSO to be much of a factor.
They also look at the Atlantic zonal pseudo-wind stress in the North Atlantic. The values this year will provide a small dampening effect on total activity.
Their average errors for their hurricane outlooks since they first started issuing them in 2014 is 2.1 hurricanes. Since 2017, when they started issuing forecasts for ACE and major hurricanes, their average error has been 43 units and 0.9 major hurricanes. For named storms, for which they started issuing predictions in 2019, the average error has been 4.6.
Due to the factors above – extremely warm sea surface temperatures and likely light shear – this season has the potential to be one of the most active ever. Of course, other factors that are not predictable this far in advance can influence the season, and we will see if they are able to provide some relief.