Hurricane Forecast Update for 2023 from Xubin Zeng and Kyle Davis

June 16, 2023
Image Source: NOAA 16June2023 NESDIS STAR GOES East GLM Red

Image Source: NOAA

Dr. Xubin Zeng and Kyle Davis have updated their 2023 Hurricane Forecast from the early spring assessment. They expect a very active year driven by very warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures that will overcome the El Nino in the Pacific.

As of June 2023, they predict 12 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes, 25 named storms, and 260 ACEs (Accumulated Cyclone Energy). The June total predicted tropical activity is higher in all categories than the April forecast. (The earlier April forecast predicted 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, 19 named storms, and 163 ACEs.)

The March/April/May tropical sea surface temperatures are the most significant factor in the June model. Temperatures are running very warm with only 2010 registering higher May values in the tropical Atlantic where the team measures.

For more details, see the complete report below or read about seasonal forecasting, systems, storm names, and seasonal effects at their Wikipedia website here.