New UA Weather Website Led by Former HAS PHD Student Patrick Bunn Helps to Prepare for Southwestern Events
Two forecast graphics from the UA-WRF model with the left panel showing 10-meter wind speed and the right panel 2-meter temperature. On the website, users can add multiple graphics for different variables/models to the page and link the times to animate them simultaneously.
Source: Weather.Arizona.edu
This original article was written by Shelley Litten, Arizona Institute for Resilience
The Power Forecasting Group within the Arizona Institute for Resilience has launched a new website that shows high-resolution forecasts of weather events across the Southwest. The site helps city managers, emergency responders, and utility companies plan and prepare – and it’s right up the alley of amateur weather buffs, too.
The website, weather.arizona.edu, shows output from the UA-WRF weather model, a customized version of the Weather and Research Forecasting model developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is widely used in the atmospheric forecasting community.
The customized model has settings that are unique to the Southwest climate and weather behavior, explained Patrick Bunn, the power forecasting team lead and a senior research scientist in the University of Arizona College of Science’s Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences.
“The core of the model is based on mathematical equations that describe motion,” Bunn said. “These equations represent processes like cloud formation or turbulence near the surface of the Earth.”
The group produces fine-scale information from two larger-scale models, a process called downscaling. The larger-scale models used are the Global Forecast System, or GFS, and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, or HRRR, a model used by the Federal Aviation Administration for air traffic control.
“These are all publicly available and publicly run weather models,” said Bunn. “We’re providing a more regionally specific version of that information.”
Downscaling the models to focus on the Southwest region enables the team to show smaller features such as individual clouds, Bunn explained. “That kind of information isn’t available from larger-scale models, and it allows us to better forecast specific events in the Southwest like thunderstorms during the monsoon season.”
A sky camera operated by the University of Arizona's Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences shows a view of clouds forming over Tucson and the Catalina Mountains from the university campus.
In addition to forecasts from both the GFS and HRRR models, the U of A weather website contains links to live sky cameras showing active weather over the Catalina and Rincon Mountain ranges from the university campus, related websites, archived weather content, and weather discussions – which are published daily during the eventful monsoon season.
Housed within AIR’s Institute for Energy Solutions, the Power Forecasting Group primarily develops models to forecast power output for solar panels and wind turbines in Arizona and New Mexico, incorporating localized weather forecasts. Predicting the amount of available renewable energy from solar and wind sources, which are affected by weather such as cloud cover and wind velocity, helps planners and utilities prepare for public energy needs.
The Group works with regional stakeholders including Pima County Regional Flood Control District and the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality, and utility companies including the Salt River Project, Tucson Electric Power, and Arizona Public Service.
More information about weather forecasting can be found at the American Meteorological Society and the Storm Prediction Center.