Arctic sea ice has changed dramatically over the last forty years, including significant ice extent loss and considerable thinning of the ice pack. Understanding how sea ice will evolve in the future is important for planning on a number of timescales. Here we use climate model simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LENS) to investigate predictions of sea ice on both multi-decadal and seasonal timescales. For projected multi-decadal sea ice loss, we assess ice mass budget changes and mechanisms that contribute to the ice loss. We also consider the role of internal variability in the midst of anthropogenic change and how this can add uncertainty to predicted long-term change. Because sea ice processes are climate state dependent, the long-term sea ice change can also modify the predictability of sea ice on seasonal timescales. We use experiments initialized from the CESM-LENS to examine seasonal sea ice predictability and how and why it changes in a warming climate.
Marika Holland is a Senior Scientist with the UCAR/NCAR Climate & Global Dynamics group. Her research interests are related to the role of sea ice and polar regions in the climate system, including ice/ocean/atmosphere feedback mechanisms, high latitude climate variability, and abrubt climate change. She is also interested in coupled climate modeling and the improvement of sea ice models for climate simulations. See Goggle Scholar.