June Update for the 2026 Hurricane Season by Xubin Zeng and Kyle Davis
HAS Professor Xubin Zeng and Kyle Davis have provided their June Update for the 2026 Hurricane Season--and things have changed!
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The University of Arizona (UA) forecasting team updated their April predictions and now forecasts an average year. Their updates are as follows:
| 2026 June Prediction | Probability Range | 2026 April Prediction | Median Since 1980 | |
| Hurricanes | 5 | 3 to 7 (79%) | 9 | 7 |
| Major Hurricanes | 3 | 2 to 4 (74%) | 4 | 3 |
| Named Storms | 13 | 10 to 16 (67%) | 20 | 14 |
| ACE | 106 | 66 to 146 (70%) | 155 | 110 |
Their June total predicted tropical cyclone activity is lower in every category compared to their April prediction, primarily because the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures didn’t increase as much as expected from March to May.
March/April/May tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are the most significant factor in their June model. Temperatures are above average but the coolest since 2022. They are the 12th warmest in their model going back to 1950.
According to Zeng, "ENSO forecasts are extreme, by far the highest anomaly in our model on the side of El Niño. We believe that the strong El Niño this year will cause about a 30% reduction in tropical cyclone activities. The sea surface temperatures this year in the Atlantic, though above average, will be overmatched by El Niño."
They also look at the zonal pseudo-wind stress in the North Atlantic. The values this year will provide a dampening effect on total activity.
Their average errors for their June hurricane outlooks since they first started issuing them in 2014 is 2.0 hurricanes. Since 2017, when they started issuing forecasts for ACE and major hurricanes, their average error is 43.4 units and 0.8 major hurricanes. For named storms, their average error is 4.6 storms, which they started predicting in 2019.
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Reference: Kyle Davis, Xubin Zeng, and Elizabeth A. Ritchie, 2015: A New Statistical Model for Predicting Seasonal North Atlantic Hurricane Activity. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 730–741, doi: 10.1175/WAF-D-14-00156.1
Davis, K. and X. Zeng, 2019: Seasonal Prediction of North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy and Major Hurricane Activity. Wea. Forecasting, 34, 221–232,https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-18-0125.1
Researcher Contact: Mr. Kyle Davis (email: davis7000@gmail.com); Prof. Xubin Zeng (email: xubin@arizona.edu; Tel: 520-661-8680)
Report in printable format:
Wiki Link:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Atlantic_hurricane_season