A recent Water Resources Research paper published by HAS Regents Professor Hoshin Gupta and co-author University of Saskatchewan Assistant Professor Saman Razavi was selected to be featured in a EOS Research Spotlight last week.
The paper, Revisiting the Basis of Sensitivity Analysis for Dynamical Earth System Models, was spotlighted on the EOS.org website on February 21, 2019. The paper investigates the problem of global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of Dynamical Earth System Models and proposes a basis for how such analyses should be performed.
From the spotlight article's Plain Language Summary: "When developing and using computer models to (a) understand Earth and environmental systems, (b) make predictions, and/or (c) make management or policy decisions, it is very important to know which factors most strongly control the behaviors of the model. Tools to determine this are called sensitivity analysis (SA) methods.
This paper shows that the use of model performance metrics to assess sensitivity is based in faulty reasoning. By framing the problem from first principles, a logical approach is developed that provides accurate and cost-effective assessments of both time-aggregate and time-varying parameter importance. Because the approach does not require availability of system output data, it enables a comprehensive assessment and can be applied to historical and predictive conditions, as well as to future scenarios."