Valerie Trouet, UA Associate Professor, Laboratory for Tree-Ring Research
Abstract for Weekly Colloquium on November 17, 2016 at 4 pm in PAS 220
The severe drought that California (CA) has been experiencing since 2012 has culminated in a 500-year snowpack low in 2015. It poses persistent threats to its economy and environment, including water shortages for urban and agriculture consumers, low hydroelectric power generation, and enhanced risk of wildfire and tree mortality. Extreme droughts in CA occur when precipitation deficits coincide with high temperature extremes and such concurrences have become more frequent with rising temperatures in recent decades. Rising temperatures thus play an exacerbating role in CA drought variability, but regional precipitation variability remains its primary driver. In this context, the role of high pressure blocking ridges in reducing moisture delivery from the Pacific Ocean has been extensively evaluated, but the climatological role of the north polar jet (NPJ) stream in fostering dry and fire conditions has received less attention.
Here we present independent tree-ring based reconstructions of NPJ behavior, precipitation, and fire activity in CA over the past 500 years. Past dry and fire extremes are strongly associated with a weakening, reduction of southward extent, and enhanced meridional flow of the NPJ in the northeastern Pacific. Similarly, wet and no-fire conditions are strongly associated with a strengthening, greater southward extension, and enhanced zonal flow of the NPJ in this region, allowing enhanced northern Pacific storm track activity and tropical moist airflow into CA. These strong associations allow evaluation of potential changes in the likelihood of extreme drought and fire years through the rest of the 21st century as anthropogenic climate change progresses, based on NPJ conditions extracted from climate model scenarios.